Economic Growth and Business Cycles in Liechtenstein - Econometric Investigations Considering the Past, Present, and Future

Referenz

Brunhart, A. (2013). Economic Growth and Business Cycles in Liechtenstein - Econometric Investigations Considering the Past, Present, and Future. Berlin: Winter-Industries GmbH.

Publikationsart

Monografie

Abstract

[1] Several economic data series of Liechtenstein are backwardly estimated in order to achieve consistent historic time series. The generated series consist for instance of the national income (1954-1997) and the gross domestic product (1972-1997). These series can be linked with the officially released results from the national accounts, which were introduced for the year 1998. Also, first analytical insights of the generated series are given and a benchmark-model for the prediction of GDP is introduced. [2] The base of sub-annual economic data in Liechtenstein is being extended by the development of a composite (coincident) business cycle indicator, the "KOFL KonSens". In this vein, a valuable complement to the ordinary business cycle definition, which concentrates on the cyclical deviation from the trend of certain separate economic aggregates, is being provided. By the detection and filtering of a common business cycle signal ("business cycle as a consensus") of multiple indicators, the KOFL KonSens as a "Konjunktur-Sensor" generates a broader foundation for business cycle analysis and therefore also a new base for prediction. Along with the project, also quarterly figures for Liechtenstein's GDP are being estimated for the first time. [3] Additionally to the financial crisis causing a world recession, Liechtenstein's financial sector has been challenged by the so-called "Zumwinkel-Affair", when a whistle-blower sold data of hundreds of tax evaders to international tax authorities. This chapter investigates the impact of this affair, separated from the financial crisis, on the daily stock prices of banks from Liechtenstein. An "unconventional" augmented GARCH-model (labelled as "augmented amalGARCH"), which outperforms conventional models, is introduced and analyses the dynamical pattern and other influences on risk and average performance.

Forschung

Mitarbeiter

• Andreas Brunhart, PhD

Einrichtungen

• An-Institut Konjunkturforschungsstelle Liechtenstein (KOFL)

DOI