Forecasting Quality of Professionals: Does Affiliation Matter?

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Referenz

Veress, A., & Kaiser, L. (2017). Forecasting Quality of Professionals: Does Affiliation Matter? Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 66, 159-168. (ABDC_2016: B; ABS: 2; ISI: 0.104; VHB_3: B)

Publikationsart

Artikel in Journal

Abstract

Affiliations fulfilling a public mission - namely academics, Fed and government employees - demonstrate a tendency towards being pessimistic, whereas bankers in general are overly optimistic about future stock market developments. We show that these characteristics are of particular relevance and statistically significant during economic recessions and stock market downturns. Whilst investment bankers have always shown a tendency towards being optimistic, other affiliations are increasingly following their footsteps and most dominantly so for short-term forecasts. Especially during the most recent crises did their expectations of fast rebounds remain largely unsatisfied, questioning the applicability of economists' forecasts as we move forward.

Forschung

Zur Prognose von Kapitalmarkt-Preisen
Dissertation, September 2009 bis Dezember 2013 (abgeschlossen)

Die Zielsetzung dieser Arbeit besteht darin, die folgenden Teilschritte zu untersuchen: a) Zuverlässigkeit qualitativer Schätzungen von Finanz- und Nicht-Finanzexperten, b) Prognosekraft einer ... mehr

Mitarbeiter

Einrichtungen

  • Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, Bank- und Finanzmanagement
  • Banking and Finance
  • Institut für Finance

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Link

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.01.008