Higher Moments Matter! Cross-sectional (higher) Moments and the Predictability of Stock Returns

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Referenz

Stöckl, S., & Kaiser, L. (in press). Higher Moments Matter! Cross-sectional (higher) Moments and the Predictability of Stock Returns. Review of Financial Economics. (ABDC_2016: B; ABDC_2019: B; ABS_2018: 1; ISI_2016: 1.415; ISI_2016_5year: 1.989; VHB_3: B)

Publikationsart

Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Fachzeitschrift

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the predictive power of signals imputed from thecross-section of stock returns – namely cross-sectional volatility, skewness and kurtosis – to forecast the time series. Adding to the existing literature, which documents cross-sectional volatility to forecast a decline in the equity premium with high in- and out-of-sample predictive power, we highlight the additional role of cross-sectional skewness and cross-sectional kurtosis. Applying a principal component approach, we show that cross-sectional higher moments add statistically and economically significant to the predictive quality of cross-sectional volatility by stabilizing its predictive performance and yielding a positive trend in in-sample and out-of-sample predictive quality for the equity premium. Additionally, we show that cross-sectional skewness and cross-sectional kurtosis span the predictive power of cross-sectional volatility for disaggregated returns with respect to size and value.

Forschung

Measures of cross-sectional dispersion in international stock returns
internes Projekt, Juni 2015 bis Juni 2018

Time-series volatility is a long standing and well established measure of risk for both individual stocks and the market as such. However, the fact that volatility is time variant is not the sole set ... mehr

Mitarbeiter

Einrichtungen

  • Lehrstuhl für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, Bank- und Finanzmanagement
  • Lehrstuhl für Finance
  • Institut für Finance