Forecasting Quality of Professionals: Does Affiliation Matter?

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Reference

Veress, A., & Kaiser, L. (2017). Forecasting Quality of Professionals: Does Affiliation Matter? Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 66, 159-168. (ABDC: B; ABS: 2; VHB: B)

Publication type

Refereed Journal Article

Abstract

Affiliations fulfilling a public mission - namely academics, Fed and government employees - demonstrate a tendency towards being pessimistic, whereas bankers in general are overly optimistic about future stock market developments. We show that these characteristics are of particular relevance and statistically significant during economic recessions and stock market downturns. Whilst investment bankers have always shown a tendency towards being optimistic, other affiliations are increasingly following their footsteps and most dominantly so for short-term forecasts. Especially during the most recent crises did their expectations of fast rebounds remain largely unsatisfied, questioning the applicability of economists' forecasts as we move forward.

Research

On the predictability of equity markets
PhD-Thesis, September 2009 until December 2013 (finished)

This dissertation aims to examine three core subjects within this framework: a) Reliability of qualitative predictions of professionals, b) a modified asset pricing model for prediction purposes, c) ... more ...

Persons

Organizational Units

  • Institute for Financial Services
  • Chair in Business Administration, Banking and Financial Management
  • Banking and Finance

Original Source URL

Link

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.01.008