The Changing World Order: Geopolitical and Social Dynamics and a Practical Guide to Dealing with the Future Based on Lessons from the Past.

The world is changing in big ways that have not happened before in present lifetimes but have many times in history. So we need to
(A.) study past changes to understand what is happening now and help to
(B.) anticipate what is likely to happen.
This seminar provides an overview of the geopolitical and social dynamics of a changing world order.
(A.) To analyze the past, two theories are being introduced: (1) Big Debt Cycle Theory: Students will define the geopolitical forces that drive nations to fail and succeed and apply variables of such changes to their professional and personal lives. (2) Generational Theory: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras-or "turnings"-that last about twenty years and that always seem to arrive in the same order. These turnings have different dynamics and seem to shape different characters.
(B.) A Look into the future: Even though, we do not know what the future will look like exactly, we are able do define a collection of megatrends that will shape our future, e.g. forces of technology, education, nationalism, post truth, work, equality. But which tools will be relevant to navigate these megatrends and an ever-changing-world on a personal and professional level? Megatrends help us to describe the future so we are able to define such core competencies that will be relevant for the future, e.g. the four Cs: Critical thinking, Communication, Collaboration, Creativity.

The seminar is accompanied by a dedicated AI learning companion. Students use it to explore course content interactively, prepare presentations, and deepen their understanding beyond contact hours. A new AI-assisted hypothesis coaching system enables each student to submit written reflections and receive individual structured feedback - including identification of their strongest arguments, targeted revision suggestions, and a Socratic stress-test question on their best hypothesis. This is a scalable, high-quality feedback format not typically possible with 25 students. Interactive AI agent: https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/49d069cc-b166-4ea7-b0f6-0619e1c0d221

lecture, reading, discussion, presentation, group work, games, self-reflection, writing, video, podcasts

Students will know about and be able to discuss (Learning Outcomes):
1. the Big Debt Cycle Theory (quantitative model): The geopolitical forces that drive nations to fail and succeed and apply variables of such changes to their professional and personal lives.
2. the Generational Theory (qualitative model): Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras-or "turnings"-that last about 25 years and that always seem to arrive in the same order throughout history.
3. A collection of Megatrends of the future: A future outlook on most urgent issues, concepts and a global conversation about how to take on the problems of the 21st century.
4. Constructive Tools for the future: define critical skills that will help navigate future megatrends.
5. Personal and professional strategies to master macro mega-trends on a micro level.
6. Explore and define theories of a dominant economic, social and political transition over centuries from past to future - e.g. the shift from an industrial to an information-based society.

Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for Dealing with The Changing World order: Why Nations succeed and Fail. UK: Simon + Schuster.
Strauss, W. & Howe, N. (1997). The Fourth Turning. An American Prophecy. New York: Broadway Books.
Davidson J.D. & Rees-Mogg Simon, W. & Schuster. (1997). The Sovereign individual. Mastering the Transition to the Information Age. Touchstone.
Sustainable Development Goals by the UN: https://sdgs.un.org
Harari, Y. N. (2013). A Brief History of Mankind. London: Vintage.
Harari, Y. N. (2019). 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. London: Vintage.
Ammous, S. (2018). The Bitcoin Standard. Wiley.
Srinivasan, B. (2021). The Network State: How to Start a New Country.1729.
Durant, W. (1996). The Lessons of History. Simon & Schuster.
Hofstede, G. (2001). Culture's Consequences: Comparing values, behaviors, institutions and organizations across nations. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Hofstede, G. (2004). Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind. Third Millennium Edition, New York: McGraw-Hill.
Ridley, M. (2016). The Evolution of Everything. How new Ideas Emerge. New York: Harper Collins Publishers.
Talbit, M. (2014). Critical Reasoning: A Romp Through the Foothills of Logic for Complete Beginners. University Press: Oxford.
Trompenaar,F & Prud`home, P. (2004). Managing Change Across Corporate Cultures (Culture for Business. Wiley & Sons Verlag: Rotterdam.

Will be provided via Moodle

Parts of assessment:

A: 70% Classroom Activity:
Small group tasks tied to reading, Activities connected to questions, problems, and reading material, In-class writing that's exploratory and/or writing-to-learn, Formal writing assignments supported by explicit instruction, drafts, and revision, Mini-presentations

B: 30 % Reflective Portfolio (one longer assignment at the end of the course, consisting of a set of exercises)

Attendance min. 80%

Grading

8 Lectures are organised asynchron. The lecturer will inform you at the beginning of the course.