Recovering Election Winner Probabilities from Stock Prices

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Referenz

Hanke, M., Stöckl, S., & Weissensteiner, A. (2022). Recovering Election Winner Probabilities from Stock Prices. Finance Research Letters, 45, 1-5. (ABDC_2016: B; ABDC_2019: A; ABS_2018: 2; ABS_2021: 2; ISI_2016: 0.762; ISI_2016_5year: 0.842; ISI_2018: 1.709; VHB_3: B)

Publikationsart

Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Fachzeitschrift

Abstract

After the 2020 U.S. presidential election, counting votes and calling states took more time than usual, particularly in battleground states. In the days following the election, winning probabilities changed frequently as new results were tabulated. Based on the sensitivity of stocks to changes in winning probabilities observed before the election, we show how the stock market’s assessment of the unobserved post-election winning probabilities can be backed out from stock prices. Our approach is based solely on publicly available data.

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Einrichtungen

  • Lehrstuhl für Finance

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Link

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102122